Archive for category Uncategorized

Another Ugly Day In The Markets, Oil In the News and Turkey Is Oversold

Our clients are battle hardened veterans of volatility already, so this is nothing new. I suspected 2011 wouldn’t be dramaless but gee whiz? Akbank, the Turkish financial giant is simply oversold and I’ll be encouraging many to build on positions. The holders of Turkey ETF’s should also be buying. Turkey’s long term growth story is still intact. Don’t allow the Arab revolts to frighten you about Turkey.

No Comments

The Economist Magazine’s Profile On “Feeding The World” Has An Optimistic Conclusion

Feeding 9 billion people in our lifetime is the challenge. I’ve been reading a lot of pessimistic reviews about the coming “food crisis”. It’s interesting the usually grim economist came to this conclusion, “There are plenty of reasons to worry about food: uncertain politics, volatile prices, hunger amid plenty. Yet when all is said and done, the world is at the start of a new agricultural revolution that could, for the first time ever, feed all mankind adequately. The genomes of most major crops have been sequenced and the benefits of that are starting to appear. Countries from Brazil to Vietnam have shown that, given the right technology, sensible policies and a bit of luck, they can transform themselves from basket cases to bread baskets. That, surely, is cause for optimism.”

Brasil truly is an example for the world. Brasil Foods has been a big benificiary.
http://www.economist.com/node/18200642?story_id=18200642&CFID=157283308&CFTOKEN=43958148
www.crinvestmentadvisors.com

No Comments

Colombia Of All Places Is Raising Rates. That’s A Signal About Regional Growth

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/colombia-unexpectedly-raises-benchmark-rate-to-3-25-to-tackle-inflation.html

I think Latin America is poised for long term growth. Colombia has been an exciting story but it’s now concerned about heated domestic demand. Just imagine?

www.crinvestmentadvisors.com

No Comments

Vale Is Also Predicting “Tightness” In Iron Ore Markets for the Next 3 Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/vale-profit-soars-to-5-92-billion-on-higher-iron-ore-price-global-demand.html
Vale SA, the world’s largest iron- ore producer, said it expects “tightness” for the steelmaking raw material to persist for as many as four years because of rising demand and a limited number of new projects.

The economic recovery is boosting demand for steel, while tight supply is driving up ore prices, Chief Financial Officer Guilherme Cavalcanti said today on an earnings conference call. The market will be constrained for three to four years, he said.

The bottom line is that “tightness” means high prices. Just as the Economist article was titled, “Valuable Vale”.

No Comments

Vale SA Just Posted Record Earnings

Rio de Janeiro, February 24, 2011 – Vale S.A. (Vale) reports a stellar performance in 4Q10 and 2010. It is our best ever annual result, characterized by all-time high figures for operating revenues, operating income, operating margin, cash generation and net earnings. Net earnings for 2010 were the greatest ever in the mining industry. At the same time, we allocated the greatest amount of resources in the global mining industry to fund the creation of new platforms for future growth to sustain high performance.
Roger Agnelli, our Chief Executive Officer, has commented: “We are living through our best days. However, given the size and quality of our pipeline of growth projects amid a scenario of sustained global demand growth for our products, I strongly believe that even better days are ahead of us”.
2009 was a transition year, marked by weaker but still robust performance. 2010 was a year of strong recovery and striking performance due to the combination of two powerful forces. On the one hand, the initiatives developed by the company in response to the global economic downturn, embracing change and structural transformation, began to bear fruits. On the other hand, the global economy, led by emerging economies, the main drivers of the demand for minerals and metals, showed an above-trend growth, rallying from the depressed levels of late 2008/early 2009.
Our powerful cash generation and rigorous discipline in capital allocation allowed us to overcome once again the challenge posed to growth companies by the classical trilemma involving growth financing, soundness of the balance sheet and meeting shareholders’ aspirations for capital return.
Vale has invested US$ 12.7 billion in maintenance of existing assets and the exploitation of multiple organic growth opportunities. Six projects were delivered in 2010: (a) Additional 20 Mtpy, an iron ore expansion of Carajás operations; (b) TKCSA, a steel slab plant; (c) Bayóvar, a phosphate rock mine; (d) Tres Valles, a copper operation; (e) Onça Puma, a ferronickel operation; and (f) Oman, an iron ore pellet operation.
Moreover, we spent US$ 6.7 billion to finance acquisitions, including fertilizer assets in Brazil. In total, Vale’s investment in 2010 reached US$ 19.4 billion, the largest in the world’s mining industry.
Simultaneously, we have returned US$ 5.0 billion to shareholders, a record amount, being US$ 3.0 billion of dividend distribution and US$ 2.0 billion through a share buyback. In addition, an extraordinary dividend of US$ 1 billion was distributed to shareholders on January 31, 2011.
After spending almost US$ 25 billion with investments and cash returns to shareholders, we were able to deleverage the balance sheet, ending the year with a total debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.0x.
In December 2010, our shares were listed for trading on the Main Board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (HKEx). With the listing in one of the most important stock exchanges in Asia, we offer now to investors all over the world the option of trading our shares around the clock, in the Americas, Europe and Asia, consolidating Vale’s position as a major global company.
Over the last ten years, Vale created US$ 154.5 billion of value to shareholders and distributed US$ 17.4 billion in dividends. Total shareholder return was 38.2% per annum for 2001-2010, the highest among our peers.
As an agent of global sustainability, we invested US$ 737 million in environmental protection and conservation and US$ 399 million in social projects, totaling expenditures of US$ 1.136 billion in corporate social responsibility. We continued to develop technological solutions to reconcile excellence in operational and financial performance with sustainability, creating opportunities for social and economic mobility for the communities where we have our operations.
The main highlights of Vale’s performance were:
• Record operating revenues of US$ 15.2 billion in 4Q10 and US$ 46.5 billion in 2010.
• Record annual operating income, as measured by adjusted EBIT(a) (earnings before interest and taxes), of US$ 21.7 billion in 2010. Operating income totaled US$ 7.2 billion in 4Q10.
• Record operational margin, as measured by adjusted EBIT margin, of 47.9% in 2010, which was the best among peers. In 4Q10, the operational margin reached 48.0%.
• Record cash generation, as measured by adjusted EBITDA(b) (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of US$ 26.1 billion in 2010 and US$ 8.9 billion in 4Q10.
• Record annual net earnings of US$ 17.3 billion, the largest ever in the mining industry, equal to US$ 3.25 per share on a fully diluted basis. Net earnings of US$ 5.9 billion in 4Q10, an all-time high figure in a fourth quarter.
• Record capital expenditures – excluding acquisitions – of US$ 12.7 billion in 2010 and also the largest capex in the global mining industry.
• Record return of capital to shareholders of US$ 5.0 billion in 2010, through a dividend distribution of US$ 3.0 billion, equal to US$ 0.57 per share, and the execution of the share buyback program of US$ 2.0 billion.
• Total debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.0x, at the end of 2010, against 2.5x in December 2009.

No Comments

Gol Airlines, Brazil’s Hip Version of “SouthWest”

Many of our clients hold Gol, Brazils hot discount airline. Oil prices have sent the stock falling and many of our downside limit orders have ticked off. I just received JP Morgan’s abstract on Gol: It’s a great long term investment.
Gol reported strong 4Q10 results and above market expectations, with Net Sales of US$1.1 billion (+19%yoy) and EBITDA of US$198 million (+137%yoy). Results benefited from increasing yields in the domestic market that reached R$20.4 cents (+13%yoy) amid strong consumption trends and positive seasonality. CASK ex-fuel was down to R$8.77 cents (-11%yoy), partially a result of improved aircraft utilization rates leading to dilution of operating costs. Load factors remained relatively stable qoq at 71%. Adjusted Net debt increased slightly to US$3.3 billion (from US$3.2 billion in 3Q10) as cash generation has been more than offset by fleet expansion, which has added to capitalized operating leasing and financial leasing. However, despite flat adjusted leverage, credit ratios have declined fast due to higher trailing EBITDA, reaching 5.0x Adjusted Debt to EBITDAR and 3.7x Adjusted Net Debt to EBITDAR in the 4Q10, its lowest ratio over the past four years. Management commented it intends to bring gross leverage ratio closer to 4.5x over the next 18 months. We believe Gols’ liquidity is strong with its US$2 billion in cash being more than enough to cover the sum of US$208 million of short-term debt, US$500 million in annual interest expenses/ financial leasings and operating leasings and about US$330 million in aircraft purchase commitments for 2011. Gol’s management expects flat yields for 2011 (R$19.5 ? 21.0 cents) and has emphasized that the intention is to manage costs closely and improve aircraft utilization rather than increase prices. The company has guided for EBIT margin in the 11.5% – 14.0% range (versus 10% in full year 2011), with CASK ex-fuel in the R$8.5 ? 8.9 cents range. Gol’s fleet expansion / renewal program for the following years suggests disbursements of approximately US$330 million in 2011, US$240million in 2012 and over US$750 million in 2013 based on our estimates of discount to list prices. Looking into 2011, we believe potentially higher oil prices will represent a test to demand elasticity, especially considering the aggressive addition of capacity by competitors, with industry data from January 2011 already showing capacity expansion at 15% (versus 6% from Gol). Although demand fundamentals in Brazil are expected to remain strong, in our view, an abrupt change in oil prices could certainly affect demand of leisure passengers if attempted to be fully passed through ticket prices. That said, and taking into consideration that Gol is only hedged for approximately 20 ? 25% of its fuel consumption in 2011, we do not rule out margin compression if oil remains at current levels. We maintain our marketweight rating on Gol 17′s (offered at 103, 6.8%ytm, 426bp z-spread) and on Gol 20′s (offered at 107.5, 7.9% ytm, 499 z-spread) versus other high yield bonds in Latin America as we believe bonds are already fully valued. Although Gol has improved results significantly in 2010 and despite the still attractive spreads versus BB credits in Brazil, we believe its aggressive fleet expansion will prevent significant free cash flow generation over the next three years, the sector as a whole is significantly exposed to oil price increases, and Gol’s gross leverage remains high at 5.0x.

www.crinvestmentadvisors.com

No Comments

Carefully Watching The Price Of Oil

No Comments

Hold The Line Clients, Steel Nerves…Libya Will Soon Pass

It is frustrating to watch hard earned gains dissipate over the Arab revolts even though our oil stocks are up. These are the “black swans” that we inevitably expect to see from time to time. It is times like these that we let limit orders tick off and patiently wait. I’m watching macroeconomic data, corporate earnings and inflation numbers, not Mummy Khadafy.

No Comments

Brazil’s New President, Dilma, Is Getting High Marks, That’s Good News For Long Term Investors

She has been in power for a few months. As the Economist notes, “But what she has so far said and done has been clear and welcome. She has scotched notions that she would be soft on inflation. Her team has quickly signalled the need for some budget austerity after Lula’s last two spendthrift years. She rightly wants to focus social policy on eliminating extreme poverty (which still afflicts about one Brazilian in ten), while improving health care and schooling. And she is right, too, to want to seek tax and political reforms, even though those prizes eluded both Lula and his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso. The most immediate change has been in the tone of foreign policy. ”

The bottom line is that she has clarified that she will govern as a pragmatist and not a left wing idealogue.
http://www.economist.com/node/18178157?story_id=18178157&CFID=156957300&CFTOKEN=46950874

No Comments

Let’s Talk About Inflation

I think inflation could emerge as the most serious risk to not only the global economy but especially emerging markets. It is forcing interest rates up so quickly after the crisis and has the potential to destabilize investment in every sense of the word. This is just not a commodity producer country problem though. We all know once the genie is out of the bottle “Houston, we have a problem”. As an investor, I try to cut through the macroeconomic picture, I try to ingore popular commentary and use a lot of common sense. Where are we going? Why did our portfolios not make 30% returns last year? Why are markets so volatile that they seem to be trying to make us all “traders”?

If one steps back for a moment and looks at the birds eye view of it all, it is really a quite remarkable evolution of events. The global economy was clipping along as it had through decades of the “business cycle” and suddenly a financial market driven crisis threw the entire economy into the most serious collapse since the great depression. Then, every central bank on earth dropped interest rates to zero, every meaningful government opened the flood gates of debt spending, “fiscal stimulus”, and new weapons such as “quantitative easing” dumped trillions of dollars of liqudity in the marketplace to force economic growth. Now, economic growth has returned, global debt is still a dilemna and the liquidity has brought inflation while interest rates are going up all over the world. My assessment is that these rate hikes are necessary and they are already taking their toll on emerging market equities. I think the drop in Brazilian bank share prices is especially notable. Nevertheless, the march will go on! The macroeconomic story is stable. It has been a frustrating market. Up, down, up, down. It begs the question “should we have taken profits?”. The answer is that we have to be long term and keep focused on the long term story of our hallmark marketplaces and the key energy, financial and material giants within them. As cliched as it sounds, “stay the course!”.

No Comments