As the Economist poignantly just reported,
A couple of months ago it looked as if the election would be a straight fight between Ms Rousseff and José Serra, the governor of São Paulo, of the opposition Party of Brazilian Social Democracy. In addition to Ms Silva, the list of possible candidates has expanded to include Heloísa Helena, who leads an earlier leftist split from the PT, and Ciro Gomes, a populist former minister in Lula’s government.

The splintering of Lula’s political base ought to be good news for Mr Serra. Hugely experienced but lacking a popular touch, Mr Serra commands a consistent 40% or so in pre-election polls, 20 points ahead of Ms Rousseff. He has recently spent time in the poorer north-east. And he has started revealing mundane aspects of his life on Twitter. João Augusto de Castro Neves, a political consultant, reckons that Mr Serra will wait for as long as possible before declaring his candidacy to avoid the sort of attacks that Ms Rousseff is now attracting. Being the front-runner is not easy and the race, which suddenly seems to have begun, is far from decided.

Our assessment is that Mr. Serra, a conservative, is indeed hugely experienced and Ms Dilma will continue the existing administration´s status quo….either way the status que from an investors standpoint is the same. Good news for investors,in other words.

Not a Shoe In After All

http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14313751

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